Four weeks in a row is not something Indian markets have done often this year, and it is worth being honest about that rather than burying it in a generic "markets remained volatile" line. Nifty peaked at 24,774 on August 3, and has been grinding lower in fits and starts ever since, closing today below 23,300, a decline of close to 1,500 points from that high.

What makes this stretch genuinely interesting is that no single story explains all four weeks. Each week had its own specific headline. But if you zoom out, one commodity shows up as a common thread running through almost every week, crude oil, climbing steadily from the low 70s all the way past 107 dollars a barrel by the time this week closed. Here is what actually happened, week by week.

Week 1: The Pullback Begins After the August 3 Peak

Nifty's run to 24,774 on August 3 marked its high point for the stretch we are covering. In the days that followed, the index slipped into a genuine six-session losing streak, eventually closing at 24,154, a decline that was already drawing attention given how long Indian markets had gone without decisively breaking to a fresh high, something we explored in our piece on why markets had gone 697 days without a new high. FII and DII data through this stretch showed the beginnings of a tug of war that would define much of the following month, a theme we tracked in our coverage of the 6-day losing streak and FII-DII flow data.

Week 2: HDFC Bank's Leadership Overhang and the First Market Crash

The following week brought a governance story that dominated headlines. HDFC Bank CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan announced he would not seek reappointment, and while brokerages stayed constructive on the stock, as we covered in our piece on why brokerages remained bullish despite the leadership uncertainty, the broader market did not get much relief. By August 31, Nifty had slipped below 24,100 in what we reported as a 500-point Sensex tumble, with the same underlying anxieties around GDP data and rate policy already starting to build in the background, themes we unpacked further in our piece breaking down the GDP controversy for everyday investors.

Week 3: A Sector Shock, and Oil Starts Its Real Climb

This week brought a genuinely unusual double hit to a single sector. UltraTech Cement's entry into cables and wires, combined with a separate copper price spike, hit Polycab, KEI Industries and Finolex on the same trading day, something we broke down in detail in our piece on cables and wires stocks getting hit twice in one day. At the same time, crude oil began its real ascent, crossing 91 dollars a barrel as Hormuz tensions escalated, a move we tracked in our piece on the Hormuz blockade and its impact on OMC stocks. SEBI also made a significant move this week, announcing a review of the CAS-linked derivatives settlement methodology, which we covered in SEBI just blinked on CAS.

Week 4: Six Triggers, a Synchronised Global Rate Hike Wave, and Oil Past $107

This week, the one that just closed, was genuinely the most eventful of the four. It opened with Nifty testing support around 23,800, prompting our piece on whether to buy the dip at the 23,750-23,700 support zone. That support did not hold cleanly. By midweek, six separate triggers, including escalating Iran-US tensions, a fresh Cognizant visa restriction hitting IT stocks, and a lower than expected NSE IPO price band, pushed Nifty below 23,600, which we detailed in why the market fell: 6 triggers behind the Sensex selloff. Markets briefly recovered on Thursday, with Nifty closing at 23,478, before Friday brought the sharpest single session of the stretch, Sensex fell over 700 points intraday as oil surged past 107 dollars and Houthi forces seized a port near the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint. This also happened to be the exact week that three of the world's biggest central banks all leaned hawkish within days of each other, a genuinely rare alignment we explained in ECB, BOJ, Fed: the global rate hike wave explained. India's own 10-year bond yield crossed 7 percent this week for the first time in three months, directly reflecting that global pressure.

Four Weeks at a Glance

Week	Nifty Level	Dominant Story
Week 1	24,774 to 24,154	Six-day losing streak after the August 3 peak
Week 2	Below 24,100	HDFC Bank CEO exit, 500-point Sensex tumble
Week 3	Continued slide	Cables sector shock, oil crosses $91, CAS review announced
Week 4	23,478 to below 23,300	6 triggers, global rate hike wave, oil past $107

Which Sectors Held Up, and Which Didn't

IT stocks had arguably the roughest four weeks of any sector, weighed down by a string of US policy headlines, from the H1B fee issue we covered in Trump's Rs. 1,03,265 H1B fee hitting Infosys, TCS and Wipro to Cognizant's visa filing suspension this week. Metal stocks also struggled through the back half of this stretch as rising bond yields and a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment, and jewellery names swung both ways as gold prices whipsawed on shifting rate expectations, a dynamic we explored in why every jewellery company wants to IPO right now.

On the other side, defence stocks were a genuine bright spot, with the DAC clearing over a lakh crore in proposals and Jefferies initiating coverage on five names with strong upside. Railway stocks also held up reasonably well on fresh multitracking project approvals. And through all four weeks, the primary market told a completely different story from the secondary market, with a steady stream of IPOs continuing to draw strong demand even as the broader index kept sliding, a divergence you can see clearly across our recent IPO coverage.

What This Means Going Into Next Week

Four straight down weeks naturally raises the question of whether a fifth is coming, and the honest answer is that it depends heavily on two things that are largely outside India's control, where oil settles from here, and how the Fed, ECB and BOJ actually follow through on the rate decisions we outlined in this week's coverage. If you are trying to time an entry rather than guess a headline, it is worth revisiting the specific support levels we discussed earlier this week rather than reacting to any single day's move in isolation. Whatever happens next week, the discipline that matters most across a stretch like this one is not predicting the bottom, it is making sure your position sizing survives being wrong, something our piece on the 3-5-7 rule for money management covers in more practical detail.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Please read all related documents carefully and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. How much has Nifty fallen over the past four weeks?

Nifty has fallen from an August 3 high of 24,774 to below 23,300, a decline of close to 1,500 points over four consecutive weeks.

2. What is the single biggest reason behind this four-week decline?

There is no single cause, but crude oil's climb from the low 70s to above 107 dollars a barrel has been a common thread running through most of the four weeks.

3. Did any sectors perform well during this decline?

Yes, defence and railway stocks held up relatively well, supported by fresh government project approvals and brokerage upgrades, even as the broader index fell.

4. Why did IT stocks struggle the most during this stretch?

Nifty IT was repeatedly hit by US policy actions, including H1B fee hikes and Cognizant's visa filing suspension, layering sector specific pressure on top of broader market weakness.

5. Could Nifty fall for a fifth straight week?

That largely depends on how crude oil prices settle and how the Fed, ECB and BOJ follow through on their recent hawkish signals, both of which remain live and unresolved.