Over one weekend, a threat that had been hanging over India's oil companies for a month was put on hold. On Friday, October 16, President Trump used a waiver to hold back tariffs of up to 100 percent that a new US law would have triggered against India and four other large buyers of Russian oil and gas. On Saturday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington will now take 60 days before deciding on vast new sanctions on Russia and trading partners such as India.

If you hold shares in BPCL, HPCL or IOC, or just wonder why your petrol price has not moved, here is what the waiver actually does, and what it does not.

What Was Actually Waived

The law at the centre of this is the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, often called the Lindsey Graham Act, which Trump signed on September 18. It gives the US President sweeping powers. He can impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on the top five purchasers of Russian energy, up to 500 percent on Russian exports to the US, and up to 100 percent on the top five countries helping Russia evade oil sanctions. It also adds sanctions on Russian financial institutions and their international partners. We explained the threat when the law was passed in our piece on the US-Russia sanctions act and its 100 percent tariff threat for BPCL, IOCL and HPCL.

Two separate things have now happened, and it helps to keep them apart. The first is the waiver, which holds back the tariffs and waives a range of Russia-related sanctions on national interest grounds, until further notice. It is not specific to India and could also benefit China. The second is the 60-day pause, which is Rubio's timetable for deciding what, if anything, to impose next. Counting from the weekend, that points to roughly mid-December.

Why Washington Blinked

Rubio was direct about the reason. Global energy supplies are under pressure from several directions at once, the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and the war in Ukraine, where energy infrastructure is being hit. Tightening Russian supply on top of that would push prices higher. We have been following the Gulf side of that squeeze, including in our coverage of Saudi Aramco halting crude supply to India and the oil market's reaction in our MCX crude oil trading piece on Saudi escalation.

Politics played a part too. The US faces midterm elections on November 3, and the administration has been pushing to lower energy prices at home. On October 9, the US Treasury permitted the sale and import of Russian diesel into global markets, including the United States, until April 7, 2027. Analysts say that decision made enforcing the new law unlikely. Rubio also said trade talks with India were a factor, adding that the two countries are very close to finalising a deal. We laid out where those talks stand in our piece on the US-India trade deal and what is agreed versus pending.

What It Means for Indian Crude Imports

India is the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, averaging about 1.8 million barrels per day this year, ahead of China at about 1.2 million. Kpler data shows India imported about 1.82 million barrels per day in September, and it expects October to stay in the 1.8 to 1.9 million range. Before the Ukraine war, Russia supplied about 2 percent or less of India's crude, so this is a very large shift.

Notice that imports are already well below the mid-year peaks. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air said Russian crude imports fell 13 percent in September, the second straight monthly decline. Kpler's view is that the drop partly reflects tighter supply and stronger Chinese competition for Russian barrels, not only US pressure. So the waiver is more likely to keep volumes steady than to send them sharply higher.

The attraction is price. Urals crude averaged about US$ 23 per barrel below Brent in September. As a rough illustration, US$ 23 on 1.82 million barrels a day is about US$ 42 million a day, or close to Rs. 400 crore a day at about Rs. 96 per dollar, spread across all Indian buyers before freight, insurance and trader margins. That is not refiner profit, but it shows the scale of what is at stake.

What It Means for BPCL, HPCL and IOC

State refiners have typically bought Russian crude through tenders rather than fixed term deals with the sanctioned Russian producers. That keeps them flexible, but it also means they are exposed whenever the rules change. With the tariff overhang lifted for now, analysts expect refiners to keep buying. For IOC, the September data shows a mixed picture, with intake at its Paradip refinery down 21 percent but its Mundra terminal receiving 570 thousand tonnes after none in August. I did not find company-level Russian intake data for BPCL or HPCL in the reports I reviewed.

The bigger link is to margins. With pump prices administered and crude near US$ 100 earlier this autumn, reports put oil marketing company losses at roughly Rs. 5 per litre on petrol and Rs. 23 on diesel. Cheaper crude is one of the few things that eases that squeeze, which is why the discount matters to these stocks. We looked at how elevated crude hits different sectors in our piece on which Indian sectors win and lose with oil between 100 and 120 dollars, and on the Gulf conflict's effect on these companies in our coverage of how the Iran-US conflict is moving Indian oil and gas stocks.

There is a dollar angle as well. RBI recently opened a special window to meet the entire daily dollar needs of these same three companies, as we explained in how RBI stopped the rupee from falling to Rs. 97. Every barrel bought at a discount means a smaller dollar bill, which helps the rupee as much as it helps the refiners, a link we covered in the rupee coming under pressure amid oil spikes.

Three Scenarios for the End of the 60 Days

Scenario	Russian Crude for India	Effect on BPCL, HPCL, IOC
Waiver continues, trade deal signed	Volumes stay near 1.8 to 1.9 million barrels per day	Discount stays, margin cushion intact
Targeted measures, such as on banks	Volumes hold but payments become harder	Higher costs and more complex deals
Waiver lapses, tariffs imposed	Refiners cut intake and look to costlier sources	Margin pressure, higher dollar needs

These are scenarios, not predictions. The waiver is open-ended and can be reversed, and Rubio described the 60 days as a period to study the right combination of measures, so a partial outcome is as plausible as an all-or-nothing one.

What to Watch

Four things will tell you which way this is leaning. The first is the US midterms on November 3, since the political case for cheap energy is strongest before then. The second is the India trade deal, which Rubio says is close. The third is the monthly Kpler and CREA data on Russian intake. The fourth is any new Treasury notice on payments and financial institutions. Until those line up, treating the waiver as permanent is getting ahead of what has actually been announced.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Sanctions policy and crude imports change quickly; please verify current details with official sources before making investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What did Trump waive on October 16?

He used a waiver under the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act to hold back tariffs of up to 100% against India and four other top buyers of Russian energy, along with a range of Russia-related sanctions, on national interest grounds until further notice.

2. What is the 60-day pause?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington will take 60 days to study the energy and economic fallout before deciding on new sanctions on Russia and partners such as India, which points to around mid-December.

3. How much Russian crude does India import?

India imported about 1.82 million barrels per day in September, and Kpler expects 1.8 to 1.9 million in October, below the 2.6 million peak in June.

4. Will India import more Russian oil after the waiver?

Analysts expect volumes to hold near current levels rather than rise sharply, since the September dip partly reflected tight supply and stronger Chinese competition.

5. Why does the waiver matter for BPCL, HPCL and IOC?

It keeps access to discounted Russian crude, which averaged about US$ 23 per barrel below Brent in September, and removes the immediate tariff overhang, though it can be reversed.